Monday, September 06, 2010
   
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We have cease fire in Gaza. Now what?

Israel declared a unilateral cease fire in Gaza after 22 days of punishing strikes. Obviously both sides have claimed victory and at the same time have vowed to fight for their rights (whatever that means).

Experts widely agree that Israel or some flavor of multi-national force would occupy the border corridor at Rafah crossing with Egypt (known as Philadelphi corridor) to curb the cross border smuggling of arms and to put an end on tunnel digging. The Israeli military will then have to release the pressure somewhere to compensate for the smuggling curb and start the flow of goods through normal channels. Okay so far so good.
However, the question is now what happens in near long term. Before this question is answered we have to answer what is the objective of both sides? Israelis obviously want an end to rocket attacks and to be left alone in peace whereas Hamas wants to capture all of Palestinian territories, at least as per their official propaganda. Two very different goals - one pragmatic & may be achievable and another plain suicidal.

The leader of Libya, Muammar Qaddafi, had a surprisingly well balanced and candid in espousing a one state solution which I thought was interesting though very idealistic. When dictators of a country are counseling for compromise, that's when you know that Hamas has gone too far. Yes Israel has taken some bad decisions in the past including new settlements in West Bank but at the end of the day it is Hamas which is responsible for what happens in Gaza. A
child may be corrupted by a bad company, but it is the parent who eventually gets the blame and rightfully so, they are solely responsible for their kid. What happens in Gaza next depends not on Obama or Israel or Iran, but whether Hamas understands this basic concept of parenthood. Whether they think of Gaza as their kid or property will go a long way in deciding whether the Gaza will be Singapore of Middle East or just..Gaza.

Links & Resources

Tom friedman's excellent
column on what can we do to help Iranian protester.
What does GDP actually measues?
If you think GDP is a correct measure of an economy, think again!
Pirates:
A seen from other side.